The Maryland Department of Transportation (MDOT) hired PB to evaluate the feasibility of implementing year-round passenger and automobile ferry service across the Chesapeake Bay between Point Lookout in southern Maryland and Crisfield on the lower eastern shore. The impetus for the study was the belief that a more direct connection between these two regions could result in increased economic benefits to both by providing a means for unemployed or underemployed residents of the lower eastern shore to reach jobs in southern Maryland. At MDOT's direction, Crisfield and Point Lookout were the only termini considered.

The study was conducted in two phases:

• Phase 1. The potential ridership for the service was calculated.
  
  
• Phase 2. Vessel characteristics and the operating scenario for the service were determined, as were system costs and economic viability.

Roadway access issues and detailed designs of parking and loading areas were not considered in this study.

Phase I: Potential Ridership

The ridership analysis we conducted determined that the service could attract between 143,000 and 228,000 annual passenger trips. Potential passengers are made up of two groups: commuters and tourists.

Determining Commuter Ridership. We surveyed 215 residents of the lower eastern shore to calculate the number of potential commuters the ferry service would attract. The survey targeted those residents who were most likely to seek new employment opportunities across the bay. The information we collected, which was applied to local demographic information, showed that approximately 54 commuters would use the ferry each work day, a number that translates into 27,000 passenger trips per year.

Determining Tourist Ridership. We developed two methods for estimating tourist ridership. The first used several years of monthly traffic count data from the William Preston Lane Jr. Memorial Bridge (Chesapeake Bay Bridge) on U.S. 50 and the Governor Nice Bridge on U.S. 301. The second method used data taken from Travel Scope, a national survey firm that determines specific details about travel behavior in the U.S.

Using these two sets of data and our knowledge of the travel patterns in the region, we determined that between 116,000 and 201,000 passenger trips could be expected during the four-month tourist season each year.

Phase II: Vessel Characteristics and Operating Scenario

The predicted ridership from Phase I was deemed sufficient to justify Phase II of the study-determining vessel characteristics and an operating scenario for the service.

Vessel Characteristics. The vessel used for the service would need to make the one-way trip in approximately one hour, so it had to be able to travel at 30 to 35 knots per hour. In addition, it would need to be able to carry passengers and a mix of vehicles, including automobiles, buses, and trucks of all sizes. Of the four vessel types--available monohulls, hydrofoils, hovercrafts and catamarans--only catamarans offer a proven and economical platform for fast passenger/vehicle ferries. Catamaran ferries capable of carrying passengers and vehicles at the speeds required for the Crisfield/Point Lookout trip are currently in service worldwide and several have been built or are under development in North America. Table 1 summarizes our findings for the most appropriate technology and configuration for the service.

Table 1: Vessel Characteristics for Crisfield/Point Lookout Ferry Service

Operating Scenario. The Phase I study showed that the number of passengers would not be distributed uniformly over the year and would peak during the summer season. To best accommodate the number of riders, we envisioned three levels of ferry service during the year as described below and in Table 2.

• October to April. We anticipated that the ferry service would operate at a minimal capacity, offering two round trips a day on weekdays only. During these months the number of tourists who visit the eastern shore is at its lowest, and the primary users of the ferry service would be commuters.
  
  
• May and September. During these two months, when tourism activity is higher but not yet at its peak, the service would increase to six round trips a day, seven days a week.
  
  
• June, July and August. For these months, when the number of tourists traveling to the eastern shore is at its highest, we projected that twelve round trips a day, every day would be needed.

System Costs. The cost to establish and operate the ferry service has three components: operating costs, fixed costs and capital costs.

• Operating Costs. These costs, related to the hourly operation of the service, include maintenance, fuel, crew salaries and overhead, and insurance for the vessels. We anticipated that the annual operating cost of the service would be $5,185,000.
  
  
• Fixed Costs. These costs, which must be paid regardless of how many hours the ferries operate, include those associated with running an office and maintenance facility, including administrative and maintenance staff salaries. We estimated annual fixed cost to be $1,801,000.
  
  
• Capital Costs. These costs include the landside facilities costs for the two ferry terminals, lay berth and the vessel. They are independent of operating hours and have been annualized over twenty years, resulting in an annual capital cost of $6,851,000.

The total annual cost of the proposed ferry system was anticipated to be $13,837,000.

Table 2: Service and Operating for Crisfield/Point Lookout Ferry Service

Determining Economic Viability. We believed for several reasons that the per-vehicle cost was a more meaningful measure of unit cost than per passenger cost. The proposed vessel has space to carry up to 40 automobiles. Because of the remote location of the two terminals, we believed it was unlikely that many walk-on passengers would use the service. Rather, we expected that the available slots for automobiles would fill up before the vessel's passenger capacity was reached, so calculating the unit cost on a passenger basis would present a misleading picture.

Dividing the anticipated number of automobiles by the annual cost to run the service resulted in a one-way trip cost of $136.86 per vehicle. For break-even operation, the fare structure would have to be designed so that charges for passengers and vehicles together would equal this amount. Fares for larger vehicles such as recreational vehicles, buses and trucks would be proportional to the number of automobile slots they occupy on board.

Only six percent of the potential lower eastern shore commuters surveyed would be willing to pay more than $10.00 per one-way trip. To reduce the cost for commuters, it might be possible to offer discounted rides to those who purchase a commuter pass or buy a certain number of rides at a time.

Tourists are currently paying between $20 and $25 per person to ride passenger-only excursion boats halfway across the Chesapeake Bay and back. We believed it was reasonable to assume that tourists would be willing to pay the same amount or more for trips across the Chesapeake Bay that allowed them to take their vehicles and considerably shortened the alternative travel route. Further analysis of market conditions and potential for subsidies is required, however, to develop and refine an appropriate fare structure.

Conclusions

Our primary finding of the Crisfield/Point Lookout Ferry Feasibility Study was that ridership was sufficient for the operation of the ferry service. Crisfield and Point Lookout may not be the most appropriate locations for the termini, however. The high cost of the service is due, in part, to the 30-mile crossing. Termini that result a shorter crossing may be more economically viable.

It remains to be seen if ferry service between Crisfield and Point Lookout will be implemented. MDOT must evaluate the benefits achieved by the service against the costs of the service. The potential for subsidies must also be weighed in the analysis. If the service is implemented, we believe that the operating scenario described above represents a practical initial level of service. If the service is successfully marketed and demand for the service increases, additional trips and vessels can be added.