PB’s New York Office Modeling Group is involved in two projects aimed at reducing future travel demand through transportation initiatives that foster more transit-oriented land use development patterns. Both projects are on Long Island, one in the eastern county of Suffolk, and the other in the western county of Nassau. They are:

• Sustainable East End Development Strategies (SEEDS) Study: Evaluating alternative sustainable land use scenarios that concentrate activities in existing village areas in Long Island’s entire east end and improved transit services that support these scenarios.
• Nassau Hub Major Investment Study. Evaluating viable land use scenarios that concentrate commercial activities and new residential development in the suburban “downtown” (Nassau Hub) area, and a robust transit system that will include a circulator around the hub and connections to major intermodal stations (busses and the Long Island Rail Road).

The two projects emphasize future development scenarios that address location, concentration and density of social and economic activities, and the role of transit as a key factor stimulating such growth and reducing future auto use. PB’s role as a subconsultant in both projects is to develop travel demand forecasts. The modeling efforts involve traditional transportation planning along with testing socioeconomic scenarios to replicate alternative land use plans.

SEEDS: A Unique Model is Developed

We had developed a multi-modal weekday AM peak period travel demand model for Nassau and Suffolk Counties previously as part of another project for New York State Department of Transportation (DOT). Recognizing that the east end of Long Island is unique in that it comprises both rural and significant summer recreational land uses, DOT asked us to develop a summer weekend recreation travel demand model for a portion of the East End.

This will be a unique model that will expand our capability to help inform clients concerning land use and transportation decisions within a non-traditional recreational travel market. Most travel demand models attempt to represent “typical” travel characteristics. The weekend model, however, focuses on travel characteristics observed during summer Saturdays in recreational-tourist areas.

The SEEDS Study model is structured to evaluate various combinations of land use scenarios and transportation improvement alternatives. Thus, the model will serve as an effective tool for testing transit oriented development (TOD) scenarios with the objective of providing sustainable developments.

We are now testing the land use and transportation scenarios on the weekday model and continuing development of the summer weekend model. Upon completion of the weekend model, we will test the land use and transportation scenarios.

Nassau Hub Study

We were asked us to incorporate the AM peak period travel demand model developed earlier into the Nassau Hub project, and to test alternative scenarios that could include automated guideway transit, light rail transit and bus rapid transit systems. We are currently enhancing the weekday regional model for the subregional study area. Once the model is calibrated, we will develop the future baseline model and then test the alternative transit scenarios and land use plans.